The Survivor Research Project: Ep 6

The hapless Ulong tribe sank to new levels of haplessness this week with a 5th straight immunity challenge loss. It was nice to see them win the reward challenge. The Pringles and Mai-Tais were rather lame (people who haven't eaten properly in 2 weeks do not need to have alcohol and salt in their systems) but the swim in that incredible lake with the jellyfish was really great.

I wished they had showed us more of what happened at Koror with the knot-tying to secure the chest. It seemed to me that their confusion of knots was much more difficult to unravel than James's "impossible" knot that he learnt in the Navy. I suspect that Katie's weaving skills (which Coby had mocked in an earlier challenge) came into play here and we just weren't shown any of it. When they made a point to show the Ulong tribe tying and James being confident about the challenge, I was pretty certain they would lose, which they obligingly did. I am beginning to think that we see so much of the Ulong trible and so little of Koror because all the Ulongers will get themselves out before long, and the producers are giving them screentime while they can. The 2nd half of the series will probably feature the Koror members more prominently.

I am mystified about Stephenie's vote. There are many theories about why she voted for Ibrehem first before switching her vote to James, but none of them really compute for me. There must be something that they did not show us, something that showed that she might have some reason for not trusting Bobby John. The only plausible reason I can see for her vote is that she suspected that Bobby John and Ibrehem would both vote for her. She voted for Ibrehem (as she knew James would do) to force a tie. If she had voted for James as per her agreement with Bobby John, she was vulnerable if Bobby John was double-crossing her. If this was indeed the case, I wish the editors had shown it. If not, then I really don't understand why Stephenie voted that way, risking Bobby John's distrust when he could have been a strong ally.

Player Ratings for Episode 6:

ST: Screen Time ; Im: Impression Left ; Lk: Likeability

Ibrehem - Ulong
ST: 3 (shown praying and talking about his reprieve from being voted off)
Im: 2 (he really is very dull and bland)
Lk: 2

Bobby John - Ulong
ST: 4 (strategising with Stephenie, talked about the reward challenge)
Im: 3
Lk: 3.5 (He's an odd one, with his biblical leanings and sense of honour, but he's compelling)

James - Ulong
ST: 4 (the knot master)
Im: 4 (missed all shots at the RC, then spent time tying his toga instead of the ropes on the boxes during IC)
Lk: 1

Stephenie - Ulong
ST: 4 (the potential swing voter at TC always gets loads of camera time)
Im: 4 (really shone at the Reward Challenge, then the mystifying vote at TC)
Lk: 2 (there was a smugness in her during the RC that I didn't much care for. She is so good at the challenges, but her strategic play has been poor, so she is not really redeemed in my eyes.)


Caryn - Koror
ST: 2 (interviewing about Katie's jokes at camp)
Im: 2 (tried hard at the RC, still seems to really dislike Katie)
Lk: 1.5

Coby - Koror
ST: 3 (mocked Katie's craft project, shown giving his own personal commentary during IC)
Im: 4 (they showed him a lot during IC, being all nervous. I wonder if his neck would have been on the line if Koror lost)
Lk: 2.5 (the camp character is really good TV, but his bitchiness can get grating)

Gregg - Koror
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: 3

Ian - Koror
ST: 2 (did the exposition about having to vote off Willard and the sense of reinvigoration after getting beef stew the night before)
Im: 2 (not much screen time but emerges as a leader - it seemed it was his decision who to sit out during the RC)
Lk: 4

Janu - Koror
ST: 3 (feeling vulnerable after the storm)
Im: 3 (comes across as a little fragile and emotional)
Lk: 2.5 (I actually empathise with how she felt and really admired how hard she worked on the IC after that)

Jenn - Koror
ST: 0
Im: 1 (one of the so called Koror B team that took part in the IC, but she was clealy working hard)
Lk: 2.5 (still largely anonymous, but I liked that she contributed during the challenge, being the one to swim out with Ian to recover the bundles of wood to build the fortress)

Katie - Koror
ST: 3 (shown doing her craft project and having a sock puppet show, and talking about how it has been easy to adjust to camp life. Also commented on Janu as a drama queen.)
Im: 3 (established as the one who makes jokes, is funny, but seen as not pulling her weight around camp. I still think her macrame skills had something to do with the fact that Ulong had a hard time undoing the knots that Koror tied.)
Lk: 2.5 (I actually think I might like some things about her, although the not working part is hard to forgive. I also didn't much like her dismissiveness towards Janu. However, she's funny, by Caryn's own admission and having someone like that around camp can boost morale.)

Tom - Koror
ST: 3 (cheering up Janu when she was feeling down)
Im: 3 (great job, being patient and kind to Janu. He's also clearly a cheerleader for Koror. When he sat out of the IC, he was offering encouragement and advice at the side. I think he's just a natural father figure)
Lk: 4

A Tale of Two City Derbies

Two contrasting results to the two derby matches involving my two teams.

Birmingham 2 - Aston Villa 0
Liverpool 2 - Everton 1

I did not get to see the Birmingham derby, as I was queueing at Suntec City to upgrade my set-top box to the new spiffy digital set-top unit (which is identical to the Astro unit that has been used in Malaysia for quite a while now, so this is something that Malaysia seems to have a head start in, amazingly). I got home and figured out the set-up in time to learn about the Villa's loss. It's their second defeat to Birmingham this year, so it hasn't been a good season in terms of inter-city rivalry. Apparently the first goal was due to a horrible Sorensen goalkeeping gaffe and the second goal was scored off a silly rebound off a Villa player. I actually think Sorensen is one of the more consistent Villa players, so I hope this doesn't mean a hunt for another goalkeeper, especially when there isn't any money to hunt with. Villa's problems are in other departments, where they are serviceable rather than outstanding. From all accounts, they had only half the goal attempts that Birmingham managed, so it's hard to argue against the result.

I did get to see the Merseyside derby and that was thoroughly enjoyable. And finally, a Liverpool victory in this fixture for the first time in 5 years. However, I wonder how Liverpool will cope with injuries to so many of their players. I was halfway despairing with the 3 substitutions that took place in the first half, all due to players picking up injury. Fortunately, they had managed to score those 2 goals, or the 2nd half could have turned out rather differently. Milan Baros also got himself sent off and will serve a 3 match ban. At the crunch end of the season, this is the last thing the team needs. The largest blow may be the loss of Dietmar Hamman. With internationals over the Easter weekend, the injured players have some breathing space, but I wonder if it's enough time to recover ahead of the Champs League match on April 5th. It's too bad these concerns must cloud a splendid and spirited display by the Reds. I have hope yet that Gerrard may resist the lure of Roman's miliions, given the way he rose to the occasion in this most bitterly hard-fought of city derbies.

The Survivor Research Project: Ep 5

A twist this week, with no IC and both teams having to vote someone off. I don't much care for the idea of having to vote people off if you haven't lost a challenge. Koror won the reward challence (well, it's getting to be a pattern now) as Ibrehem screwed up for Ulong. Their reward was beef stew and more importantly, a chance to sit in on Ulong's TC. The big twist was giving each Koror member a chance to vote for immunity to be granted to one member of Ulong. They did not have the chance to discuss this as Jeff Probst just sprung the news on them. I am not quite sure what to make of the immunity- granting votes. Ibrehem was granted immunity, which to me is a smart tactical move. The Ulong TC had obviously shown him to be targeted and granting him immunity throws a big spanner into their plans. But Koror's votes were all over the place, with only 3 of 8 voting for Ibrehem. I am not sure that all the votes for Ibrehem were strategic, either. However, it was great TV that Ibrehem was spared and the other Ulongers had to resort to a non-existent Plan B.

This episode also revealed in more detail the dynamics at Camp Koror. Gregg is turning out to be quite a player and Coby's also one to watch. I think they still don't show enough of Koror members for us to really tell what wheeling and dealing may be going on. For instance, they showed Gregg approaching Coby, and Coby being all gleeful afterwards about the "game starting". He could have been gleeful because not only Gregg approached him, but maybe someone like Katie or Ian, as well. Because they only showed Gregg, we think that he's the move-maker and that Tom-Ian-Katie are in peril. I am not sure I would trust the editing here. We will need to see in the coming weeks.

After the snore-inducing Vanuatu season, in which hateful Ami was by sad default the most interesting character, I had almost given up hope on the Survivor franchise. This season, only in its fifth episode, is already so much better than Vanuatu, I think I can say that we shouldn't write Mark Burnett off yet (and his new series, The Contenders, is also rather good).

Player Ratings for Episode 5:

ST: Screen Time ; Im: Impression Left ; Lk: Likeability

Ibrehem - Ulong
ST: 4 (lots of anguish over his RC failure)
Im: 4 (a major player in the surprise immunity granting exercise.)
Lk: 2 (not much good at water challenges, but his biggest crime is basically being rather dull)

Bobby John - Ulong
ST: 2 (with fewer players, everyone gets more screentime. BJ had a couple of moments during the aborted cave-hike and post RC camp politicking)
Im: 3 (relatively quiet this week, but was tied with Angie to be voted off, before the re-vote spared him)
Lk: 3.5 (I really liked how he spoke to Stephenie when she was all bitter about losing the RC. He appears to be level headed about accepting defeat)

James - Ulong
ST: 2 (some camera time during the cave-hike)
Im: 1 (can't remember him much this week)
Lk: 1 (not sure why it came down to BJ and Angie; why did no one except Ibrehem vote for James the first time out? Angie could have been spared)

Stephenie - Ulong
ST: 4 (loads of camera time interviewing about how she's bad at losing)
Im: 4 (well, she hates losing, and she made it very, very clear)
Lk: 2 (I think my previous sense of her as a "mean girl" is on the nose. She took losing so badly and her frustration resulted in a championship display of eye rolling and eye-brow raising. I don't think being an athlete all your life makes you someone who hates losing. She seems to have confused being competitive with being a sore loser. Also, she voted for BJ then changed her vote to vote for Angie the second time around. WTF? Why did she and Angie not vote for James? She's gutsy and plays hard, but not that bright)

Angie - Ulong (voted off Ep 5)
ST: 4 (stood her ground to return to camp instead of continuing to look for the cave, shown many times expressing her distress and despoondency at the reduced state of Ulong)
Im: 4 (obviously feeling miserable and was not shy to show her emotions)
Lk: 2.5 (she's likeable when not in a position to be a bully. I liked her gracious exit. She did seem rather devastated throughout this episode, and seemed a little relieved to be voted off.)

Caryn - Koror
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: 1.5

Coby - Koror
ST: 4 (given several interview slots on the evolving game-play at Koror)
Im: 5 (positioned as the major player, plus he brings some fun to the proceedings with his campness and bitchiness)
Lk: 3 (still not sure if I like or dislike him in the sense of finding him likeable, but I love his entertaining interviews )

Gregg - Koror
ST: 4 (plotting with Coby, interviewing about him and gf Jenn switching alliances)
Im: 4 (emerging as the big game player of Koror)
Lk: 3 (he's playing, but is not going out of his way to be an asshole about it)

Ian - Koror
ST: 3 (trouble in the RC, then redeemed himself by going down a second time)
Im: 3 (mainly for his RC performance, plus his celebration of victory back at camp - which I think some people found cocky, but which I felt was a non-issue, at least as shown to us)
Lk: 4

Janu - Koror
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: 2.5 (still not getting enough from the producers to know if my initial impression is correct)

Jenn - Koror
ST: 2 (her relationship with Gregg is made obvious in this episode, even though she doesn't speak)
Im: 3 (again, not anything she said herself, but we will remember her as Gregg's girl, the one whom he plans to take to final 2. )
Lk: 2.5 (seems likeable enough, but I hope she's not going to do an Amber and rely on Gregg to carry her through the game. She did perform well at the RC, so I think she does pull her weight. But she really has to cut out that annoying laugh/giggle of hers; it's amazingly grating.

Katie - Koror
ST: 1 (being talked about by Coby and Willard)
Im: 3 (again, she didn't say much, but she's been targetted by Willard as the mean one, and Coby clearly dislikes her and thinks that she is the camp lazybones. This is an interesting development, because we know she is tight with Tom and Ian, and it's surprising they would tolerate laziness, being such busybees themselves.)
Lk: 2.5 (the jury is still out on her, but I think Caryn might have a point about Katie being "tart". I think she may be one of those really caustic-tongued people, from what she said when voting off Willard.)

Tom - Koror
ST: 3 (talking about tending the fire when Willard did not do it, discussing voting off Willard)
Im: 2 (a quieter week for Tom but he did speak up at TC about how Koror's composition of physically weaker players forced him to step up during challenges despite his original plans to blend into the background. Again, the impression is of Mr Dependable, Responsible Firefighter)
Lk: 4

Willard - Koror (voted off Ep 5)
ST: 4 (lots of scenes once it was established that he was Koror's choice to go. Interviewed several times, shown talking to Coby)
Im: 4 (he used the word "Cumudgeon" to describe himself, which got a nice laugh out of Coby and me. And I really enjoyed his riff on the inevitability of his departure, evoking the image of King Canuut not being able to turn back the waves.)
Lk: 2.5 (He appeared to have a good attitude about leaving, admitted that he was physically not up to the challenge and even confessed to his own crabbiness. That mitigates somewhat the fact that he did not contribute much to the tribe.)

A Tale of 4 Match-ups

The Champion's League quarterfinal draw:

(A) Liverpool vs Juve
(B) AC Milan vs Inter Milan
(C) Lyon vs PSV
(D) Chelsea vs Bayern Munich

Winner of (A) to play winner of (D) in semis. Winner of (B) to play winner of (C).

I think I jinxed it when I made my wish list. Not a single one of my desired match-ups came to be!

The Fan's Perspective:
Oh no! Liverpool got drawn against mighty Juve, the team that slayed mighty Real Madrid. I think this may be if for Liverpool's Champs League journey. Hope springs eternal and all that, but even the most optimistic fan cannot deny that Juventus will deservingly be hot favourites to win this one. They are defensively solid, as most top Italian teams are, they know how to pass and how to keep possession, and they are doing well in the Serie A. I think they are just more dependable than mercurial Liverpool whose flashes of brilliance are few and far between. Winning against Leverkusen was great, but they have followed up by drawing against Blackburn. Perhaps after this weekend's derby against Everton (aka as the do and die match if they want to have any realistic hopes of snatching 4th place in the Premiership), Liverpool will have only avenue left for Champions' League action next year - winning it this year. They might have that added incentive come April 5th.

The Anti-fan's Perspective:
Chelsea will play Bayern Munich. I don't know how I feel about this. I wanted Chelsea to draw an Italian team, one that would defend like a brick wall, nullify their passing game, and test their temperament. I also rather looked forward to the Chelsea lot playing in a stadium filled to the reefers with riotously passionate Italian fans (perhaps Mourinho would get riled up enough to earn himself another sin-binning). Bayern Munich is defensively sound and has impeccable Champions' League pedigree. I thought they played excellently at home against Arsenal in the last round, and defended especially well when they played at Highbury. I think they will be worthy opponents but I don't know if they have the flair to break down Chelsea's defence. Of course, for all Barca's flair, that flurry of 3 conceded goals in the 2nd leg did them in. Perhaps the key to unlocking Chelsea might be defensive discipline, such as shown by Manchester City recently when they stubbornly played to a 0-0 draw. If so, Bayern may be well positioned to push Chelsea.

The Neutral's Perspective:
Wow, a Milan derby in the quarterfinals! You could not have scripted it better. I think this might be the match most likely to produce at least one sending off.

The After-thought:
PSV vs Lyon is perhaps the lowest profile of these matches. It will probably receive the least media coverage outside of Holland and France and end up yielding the most goals. Whoever wins this match up will go into the semis as the underdog against either Milan team.

Idol Gossip

Their faces were splashed all over the local papers these past 2 weeks. It really demonstrates the power of hype and buzz to sustain interest in people that you would otherwise not think twice about.

I am talking, of course, about the "secret" aborted marriage of Sylvester Sim and Maia Lee, finalists of the Singapore Idol series. It's been suitably filled with lies, retractions and contradictions. First, it's a hoax, a setup. Oh no, it's not, there's physical evidence from ROM in the form of an application for a marriage license, showing both person's names. Then, she says that they have broken up over the phone, and hilariously, she labels herself and Sly as "Romeo and Juliet". Two days later, he's abjectly apologising to the entire media community and saying that they are still together.

But as scandals go, it's really rather tame. No drugs, no stories of wild, decadent parties, no parental outrage over the single mother. Hell, not even a jealous fangirl Sly groupie on a murderous rampage to rid herself of the "competition". B - O - R - I - N - G.

These are just two kids who did not have enough maturity to think through the consequences of their actions. These kids are public figures, for better or worse. They project a public persona to us to support them and buy their albums. How much they choose to tell about themselves is up to them. By not choosing to maintain their personal lives as truly personal, they have invited speculation and analysis of their behaviour and their characters. I don't know them personally, but I don't feel bad about inferring character traits based on their public professions. Maia has said before that she does not care what people think about her, as we don't know her. I think that's fair enough. The point is this: I am not forming impressions of them as people, but of the public personas of Sly and Maia. This, they SHOULD care about. In an ideal world, we would buy music on the merits of the music and not the perceived personality of the musician. But it's not an ideal world. And the success of Idol has been largely due to engaging the audience to see the contestants as real people, and not just as voices. In the end, the fact that consumers don't buy purely on the basis of the music actually works to the benefit of the musician.

For me, Sly comes out of this as a not-too-bright boy who went too much with the flow, and heeded either his emotions or his libido (let's get real here) too much. The interviews with the media after his return from Taiwan have been earnest and apologetic. However much he claims that Artiste Networks had nothing to do with any of this, he sounds as if his minders have sat him down and given him a stern talking-to about the importance of image management to a new singer riding a wave of popularity based on potential rather than actual achievements. His naivete is almost touching, but signals how throughly unprepared he is for marriage and step-parenthood.

As for Maia, she just seems emotionally volatile and confused about the image she wants to project. On the one hand, she is edgy, tattooed to a T, performs like a uninhibited vamp and doesn't much care what other people think about her life choices. On the other hand, she protests that her pregnancy was planned, she was a school prefect and that she is quiet and serious. She "promoted" an ex-boyfriend to fiancee status during her run on Idol, presumably to project a more family-friendly image or to keep media snoops at bay. Despite Ken Lim's total hogwash about her having "life experience", I think she's still essentially a kid who grew up too fast in some ways, and has not grown up enough in many others.

Personally, I think neither are that special as performers and musicians. Or even as "stars".

Maia has a good, if slightly breathy, voice and is an accomplished stage performer, but despite the tattoos and the moves, she's not memorably different from what you may see in a Vegas floor show. On Idol, she had more show-womanship than any of the other female contestants but I sometimes thought there was something very self-conscious in her performances. It appeared as if she was reminding herself to have fun, rather than actually enjoying herself as she performed.

I cannot see any of the much vaunted X factor that Sly is supposedly blessed with, although I understand that it's a case of one man's meat and another's poison. To me, Sly's photoshoots for 8 Days and Lime show a bemused kid who is out of his element. I understand that part of his appeal is his "blur neighbourhood boy" persona, but could he be more unremarkable or ordinary? I grant that he may be musical and perhaps even a good song-writer. But unless he is John Lennon or Elton John, that isn't enough to overcome, for me, the complete lack of charisma and the poseur wannabe rock stylings. I think his "dirtied up" rock vocals are annoying and affected, and worst, highlight his vocal shortcomings (namely weak lower register and lack of support towards the end of long sustained lines). I liked him best when he was low-key and sincere and sung to his strengths. (By the way, for a taste of what a real Idol "rocker" is like, watch Bo Bice on American Idol 4. He puts Sly's forced sing-screaming into proper perspective.)
Basically, this "scandal" is a whole lot of hot-air about 2 people whom we will likely not remember in 10 years. But who knows, I may be wrong. Maybe 10 years from now, this will be a Trivia Pursuit question about Mandopop superstar Sylvester Sim and his rock-goddess ex-wife, Maia Lee.

PS. That said, I do wish them both well. I think their current fame is out of proportion to their talent and star-potential, but I could say that about many famous people in the pop music world. F4, anyone? The Spice Girls? Or for that matter, Ashlee Simpson? These 2 are certainly no worse than these luminaries of recent pop culture. I think they will both find success in music, at least for a while, through a combination of hard work, good luck and most importantly, clever marketing and wide-spread publicity. That's how Singapore Idol made them famous, in the first place. It's a proven formula, and whoever can milk it, all the more power to them.

Playing Punter (The Return Leg): The Result Show

A better showing this round than in the first leg. 5 out of 8 outcomes correct is not bad. My next challenge would be to try to get a few scores (or goal margins) correct. Then, and only then, can I parlay this hobby into a potential financially rewarding exercise. Look out, Score!

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
Predicted result: Arsenal victory / Actual Result: 1-0/ Punter's Score: 1
Aggregate: Ars 2 - Bay 3

Bayer Leverkusen vs Liverpool
Predicted result: Draw / Actual Result: 1-3 / Punter's Score: 0
Aggregate: Lev 2 - Liv 6

Monaco vs PSV Eindhoven
Predicted result: Monaco victory / Actual Result: 0-2 / Punter's Score: 0
Aggregate: Mon 0 - PSV 3

Juventus vs Real Madrid
Predicted result: Juventus victory / Actual Result: 2-0 / Punter's Score: 1
Aggregate: Juv 2 - Mad 1

Chelsea vs Barcelona
Predicted result: Chelsea victory /Actual Result: 4-2 / Punter's Score: 1
Aggregate: Che 5 - Bar 4

AC Milan vs Man Utd
1st Leg result: Man 0 Mil 1
Predicted result: Draw / Actual Result: 1-0 / Punter's Score: 0
Aggregate: Mil 2 - Man 0

Lyon vs Weder Bremen
Predicted result: Lyon victory / Actual Result: 7 - 2 / Punter's Score: 1
Aggregate: Lyo 10 - Bre 2

Inter Milan vs Porto
Predicted result: Inter victory / Actual Result: 3-1 / Punter's Score: 1
Aggregate : Int 4 - Por 2

Total Punter's Score: 5

The draw for the quarterfinals is on Friday. What I would like to see (for general entertainment value and to increase likelihood of having an unobjectionable semi-final line-up) are the following match-ups:

Chelsea vs AC Milan (or Inter Milan)
Liverpool vs PSV (or Bayern Munich)
Bayern Munich vs Juventus (or Liverpool)
Lyon vs Inter Milan (or Juventus)

Let's see how close I get to my wishlist.

The Survivor Research Project: Ep 4

Another really good episode, with an intense Immunity Challenge. The Reward Challenge also had an interesting twist, and the reward itself was just awesome. There are actual houses in many parts of the world that are nowhere as nice. I am glad that Kim is finally gone, so that's another plus point for this episode. Usually, it's pretty boring when one tribe keeps winning everything, but I really like Koror, so I am not minding their domination at all.

Player Ratings for Episode 4:

ST: Screen Time ; Im: Impression Left ; Lk: Likeability

Kim - Ulong (booted Ep 4)
ST: 4 (interviewed a lot; and was on the chopping block, so that always guarantees air-time)
Im: 4 (said some of the most amazing things I have ever heard on this show. Eg. she needs to eat more than the others although they work harder; how unlucky she is to be stuck in a tribe of workers; that the men were useless))
Lk: 0 (I think she may be the most useless Survivor player EVER.)

Ibrehem - Ulong
ST: 2 (talked a little more this week)
Im: 1 (very bland, didn't stand up for the leadership role)
Lk: 2 (I think he seems a bit dim, and his behaviour after winning against Greg in the IC was unnecessary)

Bobby John - Ulong
ST: 2 (interviewed about Kim, talked during tribal council)
Im: 3 (massive battles against Tom, no shame in losing)
Lk: 3 (he's a little intense, but comes across only as hard on himself, and not mean spirited)

James - Ulong
ST: 4 (leader in the RC, crowed about their wonderful latrine, bemoaning losing to a "homershexial")
Im: 4 (he made quite a few rather ignorant, red-necked remarks)
Lk: 1 (seems to be a stereotypical hick bigot. If is he isn't, he is doing a great job of fooling us.)

Stephenie - Ulong
ST: 4 (strong IC performance, shown talking extensively about the frustration of losing, interviewed on the potential men vs women dynamics)
Im: 4 (emerging as the leader figure in the trible)
Lk: 2.5 (there is something about her that screams "mean girl" but I admire her strength and guts)

Angie - Ulong
ST: 4 (did well at the IC, interviewed about being upset at James' treatment of the women)
Im: 3 (being really aggressive in celebrating victory against Caryn)
Lk: 2 (I am not sure why, but I cannot shake the feeling that she's not really all that nice if she is in the position to be not nice. She does have good attitude and combative spirit.)

Caryn - Koror
ST: 3 (interviewed complaining about Tom)
Im: 3 (left an impression as Koror's resident harpy)
Lk: 1.5 (ones of those people who always need to be unhappy about something)

Coby - Koror
ST: 4 (given the interview slot that shows us our first glimpse of alliance-dynamics in Koror, great show at IC)
Im: 4 (a lion-hearted effort at IC, winning both bouts against James)
Lk: 2.5 (I'd watch out for this one; he seems rather sneaky. I am not sure if I exactly like or dislike him, but he could make things interesting later)

Gregg - Koror
ST: 2 (one interview, shown helping with the shelter)
Im: 2 (he's not saying or doing anything that makes him stand out)
Lk: 3 (still seems a likeable enough guy)

Ian - Koror
ST: 4 (appointed leader for the RC task)
Im: 4 (selected well when asked to pick tools for the RC, seems very versatile, comes across as very bright)
Lk: 4

Janu - Koror
ST: 1 (her encounter with Kim during the RC)
Im: 1 (remember her winning the RC bout, but nothing else)
Lk: 2.5 (not getting enough from the producers to know if my initial impression is correct)

Jenn - Koror
ST: 3 (confronting Stephenie during IC, interviewed for the first time)
Im: 3 (she speaks for the first time ever, so that's something to remember. She lost both her bouts to Stephenie, but points to her for trying)
Lk: 2.5 (seems likeable enough, and I like how she fought hard against tigress Stephenie)

Katie - Koror
ST: 1 (one short interview about the RC task)
Im: 1
Lk: 2.5 (not enough to go on, but she's done nothing to irk me majorly and she seems to be pally with Ian, whom I really like)

Tom - Koror
ST: 4 (made the decision to appoint Ian as leader for RC, took charge of the task, IC giant as usual)
Im: 4 (a great IC performance again, not afraid to openly be the leader)
Lk: 4 (he is unbelievably capable, and does not seem to be an asshole, which is a nice change in this game)

Willard - Koror
ST: 2 (interviewed about Ian and Tom and how they are careful to say something nice to everyone)
Im: 4 (I think he is a sharp one; he suggests that Ian and Tom are playing nice, so he could shake things up)
Lk: 2 (okay enough, but the editing has not shown Ian's and Tom's niceness as an act, so I wonder if this is a rather cynical old man who knows his place in the team is threatened.)

My Brain this Morning: A Screenplay

Time: 7.23 am
Scene: My living room.

(I am stumbling into the living room, still yawning. Glancing at the cable set-top box, I notice the time: 7.23 am. My brain is half asleep, half awake)

Awake part of brain:
Hey, the Liverspool Champs League match may still be on. (I reach for the remote control)

Asleep part of the brain:
No, it should be over. It was supposed to start at 6 am, match is only 90 minutes ... oh, hang on, I could still watch the last 20 minutes.

(I switch on the TV and push the requisite "23" on the cable remote control. Happily, the screen is showing the familiar green of a football field, with one team of players in yellow and another in red. They had just started showing the second half and the match clock showed 47 minutes. In my groggy state, I cannot see the scoreline clearly: "L_V 0 - L_V 2".)

Asleep part of the brain:
Oh, damn! I just knew it! Liverpool are losing by two goals and they conceded an away goal earlier, so they are going OUT. Aaarrgghhh. And look, they're not even really fighting for the ball.

Awake part of brain:
That guy in the yellow jersey sure looks a lot like Stephen Gerrard. It is Stephen Gerrard! Liverpool is the team in yellow, the team that's attacking.

Asleep part of the brain:
So they are attacking, but they are still 2 goals down!

Awake part of the brain:
They are in yellow because they are playing away. 0 - 2 .... that means Liverpool is leading this match!! See, it's LEV 0 - LIV 2.

Asleep part of the brain:
Huh??

Awake part of the brain:
Could you just wake up?? Listen to the commentary - Leverkusen needs to score 5 times to win this tie. Liverpool is leading 5-1 on aggregate.

Asleep part of the brain:
Oh. Oh. O - o - o - h. They're winning! YESSSSSS!!! YESSSS!!!

Awake part of the brain:
Yes, indeed. Care to join me in the land of the awake?

Asleep part of the brain:
I think I need a nap.

THE END.

In my now fully awakened state, I have to say this: Wow. I didn't expect them to quite pull it off this comprehensively. Wow.

Real Madrid crashed out, so there are now NO Spanish teams left in the competition. Two English teams, one German, one French, one Dutch and two Italian teams, likely to be 3. So does this mean La Liga isn't the best soccer league in the world? And therefore that Barca is not the best team in the best league in the world? If so, Mourinho should just stop crowing about eliminating the "best team in the world", as if that made Chelsea somehow better than the best. In the first place, it's debatable if Barca is the best in the world, although they would be certainly up there in the highest echelons. In the second place, that was a "squeaked through" victory and really proved nothing about where bragging rights should or should not go.

But let not the annoyance of yesterday cast a gloom on the triumph of today. Admittedly, Leverkusen were not exactly putting up a galactic challenge, but a victory in Europe is never a walk in the park. And a Champs League quarterfinal slot is gold to a team that's going nowhere fast this season. Well, done, Reds.

Getting this out of my system

AAAAARGHHHHH!!!! Ch****a won 4-2. Can't even bring myself to type their name now.

Aaaaarghhhh. Aaaarghh. Aargh. Okay, that's out of my system now.

Aaaarghhh. Okay, maybe not quite.

Next round, I hope they take on an Italian team and get their asses whupped. Perhaps Milan, who seems to be defensively solid. Or let's see how Juve does tonight and Inter next week. Oh, heck, if it's not the Italians, let it be Lyon and have Sylvain Wiltord kick their behinds.

Ugh. Bad feeling that if they get through Barca, they could go all the way. Ugh. I expected this, but can't get over how annoying this is.

Playing Punter (The Return Leg)

And so the return leg matches are upon us. Time to don the punting cap again. My performance in the 1st leg was not so great. Will I do better this time? I am not holding my breath. I think I might need to be a bit methodical about this soccer prediction business, like I was with my Survivor analysis. Thing is, you need to observe a lot to be methodical. Survivor is shown at 10 pm. Champions League matches? 3.45 am. That's not an earthly hour to be practising one's observation skills. I think I will stick with the haphazard, part gut-feeling, part trend-spotting, part wishful-thinking, part reasoned-analysis approach. I bet that's how the paid experts do it anyway.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
1st Leg result: Mun 3 Ars 1
Predicted result: Arsenal victory
Predicted score: 1 - 0

Bayer Leverkusen vs Liverpool
1st Leg result: Liv 3 Lev 1
Predicted result: Draw
Predicted score: 1 - 1

Monaco vs PSV Eindhoven
1st Leg result: PSV 1 Mon 0
Predicted result: Monaco victory
Predicted score: 2-1

Juventus vs Real Madrid
1st Leg result: Mad 1 Juv 0
Predicted result: Juventus victory
Predicted score: 1 - 0
(I am not predicting what's going to happen in extra time or penalties.)

Chelsea vs Barcelona
1st Leg result: Bar 2 Che 1
Predicted result: Chelsea victory
Predicted score: 2 - 1

Inter Milan vs Porto
1st Leg result: Por 1 Int 1
Predicted result: Inter victory
Predicted score: 1 - 0

AC Milan vs Man Utd
1st Leg result: Man 0 Mil 1
Predicted result: Draw
Predicted score: 0 - 0

Lyon vs Weder Bremen
1st Leg result: Bre 0 Lyo 3
Predicted result: Lyon victory
Predicted score: 1 - 0

I am expecting this round's matches to be close and hard-fought, probably low scoring and cagey in the opening minutes. A few matches may go into extra time and even penalties (which I HATE), and it might turn on which teams are fitter, or better rested. I will be most keenly watching the Chelsea-Barca and Juve-Real encounters (and of course, keeping my fingers crossed that Liverpool decides to play less defensively than they did against Chelsea in the League Cup final). These heavy-weight encounters are the toughest to call. There is so much at stake, the margins are so narrow and the temperaments so fragile, who knows what might be in store? Chelsea has picked up its momentum again, after the minor stutters of two weeks ago, and I still think they are the best placed of the four English teams. We will see soon enough.

The Survivor Research Project: Ep 1 to 3

For any of this to make sense, this post explains the genesis of this fanciful exercise I am about to embark on.

For the purpose of collecting data for this project, it is more expedient to structure this review by player, rather than by episode. Hence, I will review each player across three episodes. In future weeks, I hope I will be able to do one review for each episode, and not have reviews that span several episodes. (Hmmmm ... wonder it the job would allow for such non-value-adding intellectual excursions.)

ST: Screen Time ; Im: Impression Left ; Lk: Likeability

Wanda (booted Ep 1)
Episode 1:
ST: 3 (she sung at least one too many times!)
Im: 5 (first booted off, and I still remember her, enough said)
Lk: 1 (seems harmless enough, but the singing!)

Jonathan (booted Ep 1)
Episode 1:
ST: 2
Im: 2 (remember his obvious disappointment, which he did not even try to hide)
Lk: NA

Jolanda - Ulong (booted Ep 1)
Episode 1:
ST: 4 (very prominent in challenges, interviews, at tribal council and just being bossy around camp)
Im: 4 (all that aggro can hardly be unmemorable)
Lk: 1 (the bossiness was a bit too much to take, not surprised they voted her off)

Ashlee - Ulong (booted Ep 2)
Episode 1:
ST: 0
Im: 0 (Ashlee WHO?)
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (the whole not eating episode)
Im: 2 (a rather dull departure but people were talking about her, which helped this score)
Lk: 3 (seems nice enough)

Jeff - Ulong (booted Ep 3)
Episode 1:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 3 (interviewed quite extensively, including gloating about Koror losing their flint)
Im: 3 (strong ass-hole vibe, which IS memorable, if unfortunate)
Lk: 1 (don't care for the glee over Koror's loss of the flint, nor for the whole story about cuddling with Kim for "warmth")
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (spraining his ankle, then asking to be booted)
Im: 3 (
Lk: 1 (complained about Jeff Probst asking him about Kim, then talked rather insincerely about wanting to give his all for the team. Not redeemed in my eyes.)

Ibrehem - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 1
Im: 1
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: NA
Episode 3:
ST: 2 (talked a bit to the camera, although not very eruditely. Claimed not to know what to do with the sewing kit)
Im: 1 (still not registering much, although he did walk in front during the IC, gaining some points)
Lk: NA

Bobby John - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 1
Im: 1 (wanted to keep Jolanda, and kick of Angie)
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (talked about underestimating Angie)
Im: 2 (the display of rage during the Reward Challenge was scary)
Lk: NA
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (interviewed extensively about Kim and shown working hard at camp and during IC)
Im: 3 (established as the hard worker of the tribe, de facto leader, perhaps)
Lk: 3 (favourable impression this week)

James - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 1
Im: 1 (the accent!!)
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (interviewed about Jolanda and Ashlee/Kim)
Im: 2 (glee at Jolanda being voted off, talking about America being a democracy)
Lk: 1 (not liking him much)
Episode 3:
ST: 1
Im: 1 (not prominent, but points for calling Kim and Jeff on the "no alliance" and "cuddling for warmth" bullshit)
Lk: 1 (not sure why, but he gives off an obnoxous vibe. Could be wrong about him, we'll see)

Kim - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 3 (the cuddling nonsense plus being on the chopping block)
Im: 3 (for the cuddling nonsense and asking to be told if voted for)
Lk: 1
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (basically shownbitching about Jeff Probst, lying around, being lazy, and telling us how Bobby John works too hard)
Im: 3 (on the brink of being voted off, being shown to be less useful than the injured Jeff)
Lk: 1 (I can't believe she survived the chop yet again despite being the latest in the chain of sun-tanning, lazy-boned Survivor model wannabes)

Stephenie - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 2 (jumping in and swimming for the flag, only to get left behind)
Im: 2 (engineered Jolanda's departure)
Lk: 1 (seemed overly aggressive)
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (featured prominently at the IC)
Im: 3 (physically strong, mentally determined)
Lk: 2 (give her props for gutsiness)
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (strong performance in both challenges, even Jeff Probst seems impressed)
Im: 4 (only woman left standing during the IC, did well in the RC too)
Lk: 2.5 (like her great attitude, but may be overly competitive)

Angie - Ulong
Episode 1:
ST: 4 (the whole deal about being different and feeling left out)
Im: 4 (well, the tattoos alone are enough!)
Lk: 1 (whiny and victimised)
Episode 2:
ST: 4 (highlighted during the RC, interviewed to camera and at TC)
Im: 4 (doing well at RC and being so happy and relieved afterwards)
Lk: 2
Episode 3:
ST: 2 (did well at the RC again)
Im: 3 (being really aggressive during the RC, pushing and showing Janu and Gregg from Koror)
Lk: 2 (she's not as whiny now but I sensed an ugly aggressive side to her during the reward challenge; not only when she was shoving and dunking Janu and Gregg, but when she was cheering at the sidelines.)

Caryn - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 2 (organising the division of work at camnp before the tribal allocations)
Im: 2 (I remember her being the one Coby chose above Angie. She also stood out for being older)
Lk: 3 (based on this one episode, seems quite likeable, capable and reasonable)
Episode 2:
ST: 3 (complaining about the new camp, confronting Tom)
Im: 2
Lk: 2 (not fond of the nagging types, especially if they don't seem to contribute much)
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (confrontation with Katie)
Im: 3 (not sure what she was worked up about with Angie, but it did leave an impression)
Lk: 1.5 (appears unhappy and grumpy)

Coby - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 4 (interviewed extensively for his opinion of many things)
Im: 4 (tried to engineer Jonathan's boot, telling Angie he was glad not to be the weirdest one there)
Lk: 2 (bitchy and trying to be a mastermind way too early, but entertaining)
Episode 2:
ST: 1 (mainly seen in challenges)
Im: 2 (for the hilarious scene during the RCx when he took time to "centre himself" and promptly fell off.
Lk: 2
Episode 3:
ST: 2 (talking about not being able to vote off people because they keep winning Immunity, and getting irritated with tribemates, although not mentioning who)
Im: 1 (strangely relegated to the background after being all over our screens in Ep 1)
Lk: 2

Gregg - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 2 (a couple of interviews)
Im: 1 (interviews were not particularly interesting)
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 1 (shown as one of the canoe rowers during the flint retrieval exercise)
Im: 1
Lk: NA
Episode 3:
ST: 2 (being part of the snake killing exercise, then doing well in the IC)
Im: 2 (strong guy, seems to be enjoying the experience, and fairly undramatic so far)
Lk: 3 (seems an okay, "chill out" type of guy, enough to get some likeability points)

Ian - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 3 (winning the first immunity necklace, interviewed about the new tribes)
Im: 3 (the geek identity helps him to really stand out amongst the usual gym-hardened pretty boys)
Lk: 3 (liking his whole capable geek vibe)
Episode 2:
ST: 4 (diving to retrieve the flint, talking about his happiness at the success of that endeavour)
Im: 4
Lk: 4 (really liking him now)
Episode 3:
ST: 4 (the snake hunting and shark catching, a good show at RC)
Im: 3 (mainly for saying "Sorry, Buddy" as he killed the snake and seeming to really enjoy the adventure of shark hunting)
Lk: 4 (appears to be genuinely good natured)

Janu - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 3 (climbing the tree to tie the rope)
Im: 3
Lk: 3 (like the attitude she's shown so far)
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (screaming at the rats, working hard during the RC despite exhaustion, contributing to the flint retrieval exercise)
Im: 2
Lk: 3
Episode 3:
ST: 2 (her encounter with Angie during the RC)
Im: 1
Lk: 3 (still liking her)

Jenn - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 1 (helping during the flint retrieval)
Im: 0 (they still have not shown her talking AT ALL)
Lk: NA
Episode 3:
ST: 1 (confronting Stephenie during RC, chopping up snake for bait)
Im: 1 (still not enough screen time, but she looks a lot like Cameron Diaz, so I rememeber something about her!)
Lk: NA (producers need to give the viewers more to work with)

Katie - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: NA
Episode 2:
ST: 2 (interviewed saying that Caryn should just stop complaining about the new camp, shown struggling at RC)
Im: 1
Lk: 2 (made a lot of sense during her one interview)
Episode 3:
ST: 3 (confrontation with Caryn, a couple of interviews)
Im: 2 (hilarious mimicking of Ian's reactions during the snake killing)
Lk: 2.5 (appears to have a sense of humour)


Tom - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 2 (very smartly not wanting to build the fire without flint, taking a leadership role at Koror)
Im: 3 (the very strong, capable fireman)
Lk: 3 (I tend to like the older, wiser types)
Episode 2:
ST: 4 (prominent at IC, no dramas during Caryn's complaint session about the decision to move to the new beach)
Im: 4 (dominated the IC spectacularly)
Lk: 3.5 (very impressed by the physical capability and the apparent lack of power-tripping)
Episode 3:
ST: 4 (snake and shark hunting, then strategising and carrying all those bags during IC)
Im: 5 (a great IC performance, even Bobby John mentioned it at TC)
Lk: 4


Willard - Koror
Episode 1:
ST: 2 (interviewed about Wanda's singing, was last man picked over stronger young man, Jonathan)
Im: 3 (the oldest player is always memorable just for that reason)
Lk: 2 (appears to be likeable enough)
Episode 2:
ST: 1 (shown struggling during the IC, but game)
Im: 2 (being remembered for struggling during challenges is not a good thing!)
Lk: 2
Episode 3:
ST: 0
Im: 0
Lk: 2

Phew, there you have it. I am going to be really glad when we get to a more manageable number of players. From the above, it's obvious that many players are not getting much air time at all. When you start with 20 people, that happens. After 3 weeks, it's down to 15. For earlier seasons, 16 is the number that they started with!

Some thoughts on the first three episodes:

Ep 1: A good start, interesting (if cruel) twist to the way tribes are picked. Letting them all be together on the same beach for some time is also an interesting development. When it comes time to merge, this prior interaction may have some effect if tentative alliances were formed. I thought the Immunity Challenge was very well done - the trade-off between taking items or having speed was a very nice touch.

Ep 2: Back to Survivor in its usual format: Camp politics, RC, Celebrating RC, More Camp Developments, IC, Post IC machinations, TC. It's a good formula if you have a good cast and the cast this time is miles above the Vanuatu group. With the flint retrieval exercise, they even had the chance to do a rather heart-warming segment on losing RC but winning the day. I also thought both the Reward and Immunity challenges were excellently designed, requiring not only physical strength and agility, but also team work and some brains.

Ep 3: Another really good episode. The two challenges were again really well designed. After a couple of seasons of recycled challenges, the production team has rediscovered their originality. I really liked the Immunity Challenge with the teams walking around trying to catch up to each other. It doesn't seem to be good TV in that there is no action at all, just people walking around in circles carrying heavy bags. The editors, however, did a really good job cutting the scenes, so that you could tell how gruelling it was on the players, making you admire the remaining players on both teams even more.

It's early days yet, but Survivor appears to have shaken off the ailments of boredom and staleness that plagued both All-Stars and Vanuatu. I am glad for that, as quality reality TV does deserve to be respected. Since American Idol is turning out to be rather uninspiring so far, it's important that at least one of the big gun shows justifies the validity of the genre.

The Survivor Research Project: Theory and Methods

It's not like anyone needs another theory on the workings of the grandfather of blockbuster reality TV, Survivor. As it is, sociologists, anthropologists, management gurus, strategists, economists and game theorists have lent their expertise to various aspects of the game. There surely is no room for another theory. Well, mine isn't exactly a theory as such. It's more a cobbling together of various observations picked up from following Survivor-related discussion boards since Season 2. And unlike many existing analyses of the show, mine isn't directly about how to win it or what happens in the game.

The actual events of the game are only part of my "theory". The other, and more significant part of it, concerns the signalling by the show's editors. My hypothesis is not so much about who wins, who is booted and why. It's not about the social game of Survivor, but about the TV show, Survivor. It's about what we see as viewers and whether that reflects, post-ante, who wins and who gets booted.

The Hypothesis
How long a contestant lasts in the game = f (Screen time, Impression left on viewers, Likeability).

Screen time is the most important factor, but also the most delicate to model. Early in the season, a lot of screen time could be both good and bad. It could mean that the player is about to leave soon, and is being given air time before he/she gets the boot. Or it could mean that the player has an interesting "growth arc" that will be revealed in later episodes, signalling that he/she will likely go far. A player might also get a lot of screen-time because of a high likeability or attractiveness factor, giving the viewer someone to root for and hence, an incentive to keep watching.

In the middle part of the season, those who get sufficient but not overwhelming screen time are the most likely to progress further. In any individual episode, the person who gets the most air-time is usually the one voted off, or who just narrowly avoids the boot.

Towards the tail end of the season, the ones who appear on screen most often are likely to be the final 3.

Impression Left on Viewers is subjective, but an important complementing factor to Screen time. It's not just about how often you are seen, but how memorable you are to viewers. I think this is equally about the editors as the individual's personalities. After all, even the dullest person in the world would say a few mildly interesting things once in a while. The editors can choose to isolate only these moments for the show. It is in the interest of good TV that the successful players are interesting to viewers, even if it is in the sense of being annoying as hell (Johny Fairplay), a major asshole (Hatch and Heidink) or obnoxious (Jenna M).

Likeability is even more subjective. It works at two levels; within the game, likeable people are likely to go further (although being too likeable can get you voted off if others don't want to come up against you in the Final 2) and outside of the game, in the comfort of our living rooms, we want to root for likeable people. It's no good to have a bunch of people who are interesting in a negative way and are completely unlikeable. It's not pleasant viewing for us. In past seasons, I think the Survivor prdocers have always tried to "redeem" even the most unlikeable finalists with favourable editing, ostensibly to make them more palatable to viewers.


Testing the Hypothesis: The Data
Data and measurement are a big part of my day job. Perhaps it's an occupational hazard, but I am going to try to approach this systematically. What I propose to do is to monitor the three factors of Screen Time, Impression and Likeability for every episode of Survivor this season. At the end of it all, I should have enough data to actually attempt an empirical model of Survivor Success. I will collate data on these three factors for each player, as long as he/she lasts in the game.


Testing the Hypothesis: The Measurement Scale
It would be great to use objective measures, but entirely unpractical. I suppose that the best measure for screen time would be the actual minutes that each contestant is shown on air, but that would involve watching Survivor with a stop watch and a datasheet, and I am not that intense about this project! Therefore, I am going to use Likert Scale measures, based on my perceptions of what I saw. It's not perfect (and would not et through a review process in academic research) but this is Survivor, not the Management Science journal.

For Screen Time, the scale is between 0 to 5, where 0 means no significant screen time. Being shown in the background during the start of a challenge does not count as significant screen time. Neither does voting during tribal council, especially if the player's comments while voting are not aired until the end credits. 5 would mean massive screen-time, both in terms of having personal interviews as well as being shown around camp, during challenges or tribal council.

For Impression, the scale is also between 0 and 5. 0 is awarded when I cannot remember anything a player did or said during the episode.

Likeability is the most subjective of all, as it will be filtered through my personal preferences and prejudices. Again, the scale will be between 0 and 5. When the person is not shown enough for me to have formed any opinion, no score will be awarded. 0 would correspond to hatred levels ala my feelings towards Jenna M and her buddy Heidi. Unlike the other two factors, likeability is not unique to each episode. While a player may be shown very positively during one episode, prior bad behaviour will colour my opinions and therefore affect the score I award. This is a "flow" variable, while Impression and Screen Time are "stock" variables.

So there you have it, the outline of my Survivor Research Project. In the next post, I take on the fun task of reviewing Episodes 1 to 3 and awarding scores based on my measurement framework.