Playing Punter: The Result Show

After the first night's matches, I was 3 for 4. Not a bad outcome at all. The only match I called wrongly was the Bayern Munich vs Arsenal one.

After the second night, I was 3 of 8. A truly pathetic strike rate of 0 for 4 on that second set of matches. Truth be told, I did say the Barca-Chelsea match could end in a Barca victory, so I should claim half a point for that.

So, in total, 3.5 correct out of 8. That's not too shabby for a beginner at this club level punting. It's at least slightly better than pure blind statistical chance!

The Result Roll:

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Predicted result: Draw / Actual Result: 3-1 / Punter's score: 0

Liverpool vs Bayer Leverkusen
Predicted result: Liverpool victory / Actual Result: 3-1 / Punter's score: 1

PSV Eindhoven vs Monaco
Predicted result: PSV victory / Actual Result: 1-0 / Punter's score: 1

Real Madrid vs Juventus
Predicted result: Real Madrid victory / Actual Result: 1-0 / Punter's score: 1

Barcelona vs Chelsea
Predicted result: Draw (or Barca victory, depending on the injury list at Chelsea) / Actual result: 2-1 / Punter's score: 0.5

FC Porto vs Inter Milan
Predicted result: Inter victory / Actual result: 1-1 / Punter's score: 0

Man Utd vs AC Milan
Predicted result: Man Utd victory / Actual result: 0-1 / Punter's score: 0

Weder Bremen vs Lyon
Predicted result: Draw / Actual result: 0-3 / Punter's score: 0

Final Punter's Score: 3.5

Looking back and forward:

Through some miracle, my bold prediction of a Liverpool victory actually came to bear. Colour me surprised, if pleased. My favourite sight during that match was Stephen Gerrard standing up and clapping in the stands after Hamann got the third goal.

I dare not yet dream of a place in the quarterfinals for Liverpool. I think all these results, excepting the Bremen-Lyon one, can be reversed in the return leg. All the four English teams have equal reason to hope and to fear what may happen during the 2nd leg matches. Liverpool leads, but have conceded an away goal. Arsenal and Chelsea both trail but have scored an away goal each. Man Utd lost at home, but it is only a one goal deficit. It is still all too play for come March 8th and 9th.

If anything, I hate to say it, but I think Chelsea has the best chance of the four. They play at home, and need to score only once and shut-out Barca thereafter. Their defence has been rock solid at home all season, so they can pull this off, as long as they manage to score. Man Utd only trails by one goal, although it is an away one. I can easily see this being reversed in Milan, or at least having the tie stretched to extra time, or (please not!) even penalties. Arsenal probably has the worst odds, as their defence is nowhere as realiable as Chelsea and they have a 2 goal deficit to overcome. They also just managed to drop points against yet another a team in the lower half of the League, playing to a 1-1 draw with Southampton. Morale cannot be good at Highbury.

As for Liverpool, they are the only English team taking a goal advantage into the 2nd leg. Theoretically it's doable. But to concede that injury time goal was such a dampener on an otherwise sterling night. I also worry about tomorrow's Carling Cup final against Chelsea. Whatever the result, I hope Liverpool has a good match and acquit themselves well enough to go to Germany with some measure of confidence.