Playing Punter

I typically am not very good at making predictions of soccer results. Many of the teams I backed in the last World Cup and Euro competitions did not go further than the first round. That said, matches involving national teams are usually more unpredictable due to myriad factors: players who don't play together all the time, locker room politics, controversial team picks, national pride.

I reckon I may have better results predicting outcomes in club football, something I haven't tried before. As there is a first time for everything, I may as well start with the cream of European club football, the Champion's League 1st leg matches tonight and tomorrow. My target is to get at least 3 of the 8 predictions correct (predicted scores not counting), at least bettering pure statistical odds.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Predicted result: Draw
Predicted score: 1 - 1
Comments: One way to be objective about these predictions is to look at League positions. I almost tipped a Bayern victory as they are Bundesliga leaders while Arsenal has slipped down to 3rd in the Premiership. But I think Arsenal may be determined to prove something after recent results and some of the nonsense in the media (Cole, Reyes, the "no English player" controversy) and could pull off a fighting draw.

Liverpool vs Bayer Leverkusen
Predicted result: Liverpool victory
Predicted score: A 1-goal margin to Liverpool, Leverkusen might sneak an away goal.
Comments: I will admit this is a prediction more in hope than anything else. Liverpool has had some time to rest, having gotten themselves knocked out of the FA Cup early, so they should at least be fresh. No Gerrard is a big worry, but he did sound quite an inspiring war cry, so here's hoping the troops heard him.

PSV Eindhoven vs Monaco
Predicted result: PSV victory
Predicted score: 3-2
Comments: This is based largely on the fact that PSV leads the Dutch League while Monaco's title bid seems to be fading. I think this will be high-scoring and probably a more open and attractive encounter than some of the bigger-name match-ups.

Real Madrid vs Juventus
Predicted result: Real Madrid victory
Predicted score: 2-1 or 3-1; I like Juve's chances of getting at least one away goal.
Comments: I think Real Madrid's home ground advantage would count enough to get them a victory, but I expect defensive indiscipline, leading to a goal (or more) for Juve. And when they move to Turin for the 2nd leg, Juve might pull off the aggregate win.

Barcelona vs Chelsea
Predicted result: Draw (or Barca victory, depending on the injury list at Chelsea)
Predicted score: 1-1 (or 2-1)
Comments: The battle of the League leaders. Chelsea is pretty hard hit with injuries, but assuming key players are declared fit, I think their defensive strength could see them grinding out a draw. I am hoping to see Barca in full attacking mode, but perhaps a more circumspect approach is warranted for a match like this.

FC Porto vs Inter Milan
Predicted result: Inter victory
Predicted score: 0-2
Comments: I haven't really been following Porto's progress, so this is purely based on instinct. I could be looking pretty ridiculous in two days' time if Porto goes on a defending champion's rampage and maul Inter.

Man Utd vs AC Milan
Predicted result: Man Utd victory
Predicted score: 2-1
Comments: Man Utd is going all guns-ablaze and Milan is without Shevchenko. Not a hard one to call for Man Utd. However, I think AC Milan may be able to sneak an early goal in before the match has really settled, although Man Utd will quickly stamp out the lead.

Weder Bremen vs Lyon
Predicted result: Draw
Predicted score: 2-2
Comments: Lyon will likely win the French League and Bremen is doing well enough to lie 3rd in Bundesliga. Since I do rate the German league as stronger than the French, a draw seems to be a fair enough outcome. I think this will be one of the more entertaining matches in this round of the Champs League, although the match-up is certainly amongst the least glamourous.